| 摘要: | 由2013年世界觀光旅遊委員會（World Travel and Tourism Council，WTTC）所公布的全球觀光產業發展概況統計可知，觀光發展與我們日常生活的關係是十分密切的，而由 WTTC 對台灣的觀光評比資料中發現，台灣雖擁有良好的觀光旅遊環境，但是觀光對台灣的經濟貢獻卻相對落後其他國家。因此，政府應積極推動觀光旅遊，發展國際觀光、提升國內旅遊品質，建立優質的旅遊環境與形象，藉以吸引更多的國際觀光客，創造更高的旅遊與觀光業產值，而為了提升國家的區域經濟發展及旅遊與觀光產業更高的經濟貢獻，除了擴大來台旅遊人數之外，促進更大的旅客分散和更多的消費支出，也是相當重要的。所以，本研究欲朝來台國際旅客的旅遊是否分散和分散程度進行研究，並分析來台國際旅客願意到台北市以外的景點旅遊是受了那些因素的影響，以期研究結果能提供給政府部門在訂定觀光旅遊政策時之參考。 本研究以世界各國來台之國際觀光客為研究對象，採用行政院交通部觀光局之「來臺旅客消費及動向調查」問卷調查資料為研究樣本，總合世界 31 個主要來台觀光的國家，以 2009 至 2010 年為研究期間。本文將採用 STATA 統計軟體和 probit 模型及線性迴歸模型，來探討來台國際觀光客之旅遊觀光動向與旅遊分散程度，是否會受到來台次數、停留天數、到訪旅遊景點總數、來台目的、旅行安排方式、居住地、年齡、所得、性別、來台年度、入境處等因素的影響。 問題探討分成兩個面向，第一部份，採用 probit 模型探討旅客是否拜訪台北市以外的景點與其人口特徵之關係。第二部份，採用線性迴歸模型探討旅客旅程分散程度的大小與其人口特徵之關係。以分析來台國際旅客之旅遊觀光動向與旅遊分散程度，及探討不同國家的觀光客赴台灣旅遊的行為是否存在差異。 研究結果顯示，來台次數並不影響旅客是否拜訪台北市以外景點的機率，但對旅客旅程分散程度具有顯著影響。拜訪台北市以外景點的機率較高，且旅客旅程分散程度也較大的旅客，有以下四種（1）來台停留天數越長、（2）到過的旅遊景點總數越多、（3）由旅行社規劃行程且包辦的旅客、（4）年齡 60 歲以上。日本、韓國旅客在停留天數的估計上，拜訪台北市以外景點的機率最高且旅程分散程度也最大。中國大陸旅客在旅遊景點總數及居住地兩個變數的估計上，均顯示其拜訪台北市以外景點的機率較大且旅程分散程度也較高。來台目的為從事各種工作的旅客，拜訪台北市以外景點的機率較低且旅程分散程度也較低。所得在是否分散和旅程分散程度的估計上差異並不大。女性旅客與男性旅客拜訪台北市以外景點的機率差異並不大，但女性旅客的旅程分散程度比男性旅客低。 2010 年來台旅客在是否分散及旅程分散程度的估計上高於 2009 年來台的旅客。由桃園國際機場入境來台的旅客，其拜訪台北市以外景點的機率及旅程分散程度較低。 由研究結果可知，政府若能擬訂觀光宣傳計劃，吸引因工作目的來台的旅客，願意利用工作來台的機會，多停留一點時間在台從事旅遊活動。並針對港、澳、新、馬區，除了加強觀光行銷之外，也可與觀光業者合作，設計適合年紀稍長者的旅遊行程，以吸引年紀稍長者願意來台從事旅遊活動。藉此，不只能增加來台的旅客人數，亦可提高拜訪台北市以外景點的機率及旅程分散程度。
The data concerning to the global tourism industry overview statistics announced by the 2013 World Travel and Tourism Council （WTTC） show that tourism development has a close link with our daily lives. Meanwhile, the data on Taiwan's tourism appraisal organized by WTTC display that though Taiwan owns a good tourism environment, the tourism contributes less to Taiwan’s economy in comparison with other countries. Therefore, the Government should boost tourism aggressively to attract more international tourists to create a higher traveling and tourism industry output. With the aim of enhancing the country's regional economic development in terms of the tourism industry, the promotion of greater decentralization and more traveler’s consumer spending are important issues besides expanding the number of tourists to Taiwan. Therefore, this study intends to investigate whether the international travelers are ‘disperse or not’ and their ‘degree of dispersal’. Also, the analysis of the factors which affect international travelers’ inclination to visit the attractions outside of Taipei is supposed to provide findings to government departments in formulating tourism policy as well. The research is based upon the data of the questionnaires survey of visitors expenditure and trends in Taiwan of Taiwan Tourism Bureau, MOTC inclusive of the tourists from 31 foreign countries ranging from the period of 2009 to 2010. In this research, STATA statistical software, probit model and linear regression model are adopted to explore whether the trend of the international tourists in Taiwan and the tourist dispersal are affected by the factors consist of the times of the arrivals to Taiwan, length of stay, the total numbers of visiting tourist attractions, the visiting purposes, the traveling arrangement, the country of residence, age, income, gender, the visiting year and the entry point. The research questions can be divided into two dimensions. First, the probit model is adopted to explore the relation between travelers visiting tourist attractions outside Taipei and their demographic characteristics. Secondly, the linear regression model is used to probe the relation between the extent of tourist dispersal and their demographic characteristics to analyze the extent of the intent of the tourists and their tourist dispersal and investigate whether there is discrepancy among the tourists in Taiwan from different countries. The results in this research are shown as below. First of all, the times of arrival do not interfere the probability concerning to the tourists visiting the attractions outside of Taipei; however, it affects the tourist dispersal significantly. In addition, the tourists have more probability to visit the attractions outside of Taipei and get more tourist dispersal in case that they conform to the four factors below:(1) the longer period they stay in Taiwan (2) the more tourist attractions they visit (3) attending in group tour arranged through a travel agency (4) the tourists over the age of 60. The analysis of the length of the stay displays the tourists from Japan and South Korea have the highest probability to visit the attractions outside of Taipei and get the most tourist dispersal. Moreover, the Chinese tourists have more probability to visit the tourist attractions outside of Taipei and get more tourist dispersal in the estimation of total numbers of visiting tourist attractions and the residence. The tourists with the purpose of business affairs, attending international conference or exhibit are less likely to visit the attractions outside of Taipei and get lower tourist dispersal. In addition, the factors related to the income of the tourists have no significant influence on the ‘disperse or not’ and the ‘degree of dispersal’. As far as gender is concerned, the probability to visit the attractions outside of Taipei between female tourists and male tourists is not apparent, but female tourists get less dispersal than male tourists. The tourists in 2010 have more probability to disperse and get more dispersal than tourists in 2009 evidently. Last but not the least, the tourists entering Taiwan from Taiwan Taiyuan International Airport have less probability to visit the attractions outside of Taipei and get lower dispersal. The results in the study indicate that in the event that the Government can develop tourism promotion propagandize to catch the eye of travelers to Taiwan for work purposes, they will be willing to stay longer in Taiwan. Furthermore, when making the travelers from Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore and Malaysia area as targets, to attract older visitors to visit Taiwan by means of strengthening tourism marketing and cooperating with the tourism industry is practicable. In this way, we can not only increases the number of visitors to Taiwan but also improve the probability for the visitors to visit the attractions outside of Taipei and thus get more tourist dispersal. |
