考量貿易與金融整合程度後產出波動對經濟成長的影響—以新興市場國家為例

NHUIR > College of Management > Department of Cultural & Creative Enterprise Management > Disserations and Theses(M. A. Program in Leisure Industry) > Item 987654321/17439

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Title:	考量貿易與金融整合程度後產出波動對經濟成長的影響—以新興市場國家為例
Other Titles:	Effects of output volatility on economic growth in emerging market countries considering trade and financial integration
Authors:	邱燕華 Chiu, Yen-hua
Contributors:	休閒產業經濟學系陳寶媛 Pao-yuan Chen
Keywords:	產出波動;金融與貿易整合;新興市場 emerging market;financial and trade integration;output volatility
Date:	2013
Issue Date:	2014-12-23 13:50:30 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	由於新興市場成長快速，不僅經濟成長潛力受到各國重視，其因經濟發展、所得增加與中產階級崛起所帶動的龐大商機，使得許多國家將拓展新興市場列為經貿工作重點。本文以Kose, Prasad and Terrones(2006)一文為架構，以新興市場國家為研究對象，重新檢視：在考量貿易整合(trade integration)與金融整合(financial integration)後，產出波動(output volatility)對經濟成長(economic growth)的影響是否有所異動。　　　本文以進出口值之總合佔名目國內生產毛額的比重代表貿易整合程度；以總資本流動佔名目國內生產毛額的比率來衡量金融整合程度；以實質經濟成長率之移動標準差來代表產出波動。　　　由於每個國家間的發展程度不一，且因在不同年代，金融與貿易整合的速度也有所不同。故本文由時間別與地區別出發，分別探討新興市場國家在不同年代產出波動與經濟成長之間的關係；以及在同一時段，不同地區之新興市場國家其產出波動與經濟成長之間的關係。　　　茲將實證結果彙整如下：1.以實質經濟成長率的五年移動平均標準差來代表產出波動，探討22個新興市場國家在1970年到2010年間，產出波動對經濟成長的影響時，本文發現：產出波動對經濟成長具有負向的影響關係，其影響程度會隨著貿易與金融的自由化而減緩。2.在不同的年代，產出波動對經濟成長的影響不僅程度不同且正負都有。在1978年至1987年與1998年至2007年這兩段期間，產出波動對經濟成長皆具有正向的影響，但是在1988年至1997年這段期間，產出波動對經濟成長的影響卻是負向的。這驗證了既存文獻的結論，也反映了即使將貿易與金融整合程度納入考慮，在不同的年代，產出波動對經濟成長的影響的效果是會改變的。再就產出波動對經濟成長的影響程度來看，1988年至1997年這段期間的影響程度最大，接著是1978年至1987年這段期間，1998年至2007年這段期間，產出波動對經濟成長的影響反而相對比較小。3.在1970年到2010年這段期間，產出波動對經濟成長的影響在不同區域有不同的表現。就亞洲11個新興市場國家而言，產出波動對經濟成長的影響大多為負；但是就南美洲7個新興市場國家而言，產出波動對經濟成長的影響大多為正。再就影響程度而言，產出波動對經濟成長的影響在南美洲地區相對大於亞洲地區。　　As emerging markets grow rapidly, the potential economic growth is valued by various countries. Moreover, the huge business opportunities driven by economic development, increase of the income and the rise of the middle class in emerging markets has made many countries expand trade with emerging markets as a priority. This paper, using an article of Kose, Prasad and Terrones (2006) as the framework and emerging market countries as the subject of the study, reviews whether the influence of output volatility on economic growth will vary with consideration of trade integration and financial integration.　　　Our measure of trade integration is a continuous one used widely in the literature—the ratio of the sum of imports and exports to GDP. The financial integration measure is the ratio of gross capital flows to GDP. We use the moving standard deviation of economic growth rate as the proxy variable of output volatility.　　　Owing to the degrees of development and the financial and trade integration speeds are different for emerging market countries, our studies focus on two topics. The first topic is to investigate the effects of output volatility on economic growth for emerging market countries at different decade. The second topic is to investigate the effects of output volatility on economic growth for emerging market countries at different areas for the same time period.　The empirical output are as follow：1.We use the five year moving standard deviation of economic growth rate as the proxy variable of output volatility. The empirical research shows that output volatility has negative effect on economic growth but the negative effect is decreasing when we consider the trade and financial integration for 22 emerging market countries from 1970 to 2010.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Cultural & Creative Enterprise Management] Disserations and Theses(M. A. Program in Leisure Industry)

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