本文檢視奧根斯基（A. F. K. Organski）「權力轉移理論」的內涵與應用，並以美國與中國的關係演變作為個案研究。重建後新的權力轉移理論，以競爭國之間的地理位置、修正過後的國力測量來檢視美中關係，推測美中是否會發生衝突，並且否決了國家對於國際體制滿意不滿意這個論點。從此本文發現，國與國發生戰爭與否地理位置的遠近占了很大的因素，美中之間為太平洋所阻隔，出現衝突的機率不高。而改量過後的國力計算方式也顯示，美國的國力仍遠遠超過其餘的強權，短時間內無人能夠與其匹敵。因此，美中關係並不因中國崛起而走向衝突。 The article aims to revitalize the development and implementation of power transition theory. The article develops a rebuilt theory which verifies with Sino-American relations. The articles argues that the competing nations will get into fights if the states are located close; however, there is Pacific Ocean exited between China and the United States, which means the possibility of conflict happening is rather little. The revised national power measuring method shows that the U.S. is still far much stronger than the rest of the competitors which have little opportunity to reach the United States’ position. Also, the argument of satisfaction is abstract and not supposed to be counted as an approach to examine international relations. Power transition theory is the best system to consider Sino-American relations, and result of the studies also matches up the real situation.
