| 摘要: | 自1970年代起間台灣對外貿易盈餘持續的增加，且在亞洲金融危機之後，國外資本大舉的流入台灣,這些因素導致2008年，台灣的外匯持有量僅次於中國大陸和日本排名世界第三。相較於經濟體龐大的中國大陸和日本，台灣的外匯持有量是否過多值得我們探討。 過去文獻中採用指標分析法不足之處(Triffin,1961;謝勇男,1973;陳添枝,1986)，在於缺乏理論模型支持。Frenkel and Jocanovic(1981)修正最適外匯準備模型，且以最適(optimal)之觀點來計算出最適外匯準備持有量。因此，本文為改善過去文獻不足之處，以 F-J 模型為理論模型基礎，計算台灣1987年1月至2008年6月的最適外匯準備持有量，經由與實際外匯準備持有量相較之後，分析台灣的外匯準備持有量是否適足。且本文採用高頻率的月資料，主要是期待能更真實反應外匯準備的波動。 在成本-效益分析之下，我們以外匯準備量與淨外匯準備量分別估算出最適外匯準備持有量後，與實際外匯準備持有量相比較,，我們發現大部分期間台灣的外匯準備持有量是不足的，其中，在1987年至2004年期間，外匯持有量明顯不足;而在2004年以後，外匯持有量則是持有過多。
Since 1970, Taiwan's sustained foreign trade surplus and the massive inflow of foreign capital after the Asian financial crisis .These factors caused that Taiwan's foreign reserves holding was the third rank which behind the China and Japan in 2008 in the world.To compare the Taiwan's economy of scale with the huge economies of China or Japan,it is worthy for us to analyze whether the excess of foreign reserves holding in Taiwan. The defect of using the analysis of indicators approach of past literature was lack the support of theoretical model (Triffin, 1961 ; Shie, 1973 ; Chen, 1986).Frenkel and Jocanovic (1981) amended the optimal foreign reserves holding model,and posed the optimum of view to calculate the optimal foreign reserves holding.Therefore,in this paper, in order to improve the defect of the past literature,we used the F-J model to be the basis of theoretical model.We calculated the Taiwan's optimal foreing reserves holding from January 1987 to June 2008 ,and compared this with the actual amount of foreign reserves holding.In order to reflect the fluctuation of foreign reserves holding more truly,we adopted the high-frequency of monthly data. Under the cost-benefit analysis,we used the foreign reserves holding and the net foreign reserves holding separately to calculate the optimal foreign reserves holding,and compared to the actual foreign reserves holding.We found that Taiwan's foreign reserves holding to be less during the most period.The foreign reserves holding is inadequate from 1987 to 2004 period,and after 2004 period,it is excessive. |
