臺灣公開上市建築開發業財務預警模型之研究

NHUIR > College of Management > Department of Finance, The M.A. Program of Financial Management > Disserations and Theses > Item 987654321/20454

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Title:	臺灣公開上市建築開發業財務預警模型之研究
Other Titles:	A STUDY OF FINANCIAL PRE-WARNING MODEL FOR LISTED REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY IN TAIWAN
Authors:	莊萬吉 Jhuang, Wan-ji
Contributors:	財務金融學系財務管理碩士班徐清俊 Ching-jun Hsu
Keywords:	公司治理;財務預警模式;建築開發業 Financial Pre-warning;Real Estate Development Industry;Corporate Governance
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2015-05-09 17:52:29 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	建築開發業財務危機預警制度一直是許多人所重視之課題，在過去亦有相當多學者進行深入研究，並建立相關文獻。綜觀傳統式財務危機預警模型均採用財務變數加以建構，然僅用財務變數所建立的預警模型似乎仍無法正確預警出近年來的財務危機事件。　　　　本研究除了考慮財務變數之外，同時採用最近研究中所指出對財務危機具有影響的公司治理變數來建構預警模型，以改善目前通行之財務危機預警制度，樣本期間取自2002年1月至2006年12月底止，以臺灣建築開發業股票上市公司為研究樣本。　　　　經實證結果發現，應用logit模型建構加入「公司治理」變數於模型中，能提升臺灣公開上市建築開發業財務危機公司與正常公司之預測力。其整體模型預測準確率在問題發生前二年可達93.33%，而第三年與第四年亦分別達到86.67%及80.00%。最後，本研究針對投資人、債權人、貸款銀行、公司管理者與稽核專員執行偵查及預防舞弊，提供實務之建議。　　Many have stressed the importance on the financial crisis forecasting of private real estate companies, and this is a topic that has been extensively studied. Traditional studies utilize financial ratios to construct the financial distress alerting models. However, the models considering only financial ratios couldn’t effectively predict financial distress events happening in recent years.　　　　This study intends to construct a financial distress alerting model not only with financial factors, but also with corporate governance, which are demonstrated to affect financial distress dramatically. After combining the information of financial factors and corporate factors, this study creates a “Corporate Governance” financial distress alerting model which can improve the weaknesses of traditional financial distress alerting models. The sample architecture companies surveyed are listed at Taiwan stock market. Data period of the sample companies is from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2006.　　　　The results show that the inclusion of “Corporate Governance” variable can enhance the predictive power of the logit model. The results suggest accuracy percentage could reach 93.33% two years before bankruptcy, and 86.67%, 80.00%, respectively three and four years before bankruptcy.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Finance, The M.A. Program of Financial Management] Disserations and Theses

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