台灣近年來企業財務危機事件頻傳，導致金融機構逾期放款比率升高，特別是以農業為主之縣市因經濟條件較差，違約情況相對嚴重。過去在財務預警模型的研究，大多以企業為研究對象，本研究則以農地授信戶之非財務資料構面為主軸，深入探討農地擔保品在借貸關係中所扮演的角色及其影響力，以及影響借款人之違約因子。透過模型運用，供金融機構授信決策人員准駁與否之參酌，以降低逾期違約之機率。 本研究選取1996年1月至2006年12月底止，國內某大金融機構所承作以農地為擔保品之一般性農業放款，合計329件樣本，包括222件正常戶與107件逾期戶。本研究依據擔保品、借款人及貸放條件諸考量因素，以因素分析法與逐步迴歸分析方法篩選變數，應用Logit迴歸模型，對篩選後變數與違約之相關程度予以實證分析。 實證結果發現，影響農地擔保品授信違約風險主要的顯著變數為：擔保品使用計劃、估價金額的高低、附近狀況、形狀樣式、借款人性質、授信餘額的高低、貸款期限及寬限期之有無等。 In recent years the worsening financial condition of enterprises in Taiwan has the rising rate of overdue loan especially for those agricultural areas with poor economic conditions. In the past, studies of the financial warning model mostly focus on the enterprises;however, the objective of this study switch focus on the credit of account of the agricultural loan to explore the influences of the role of farmland guarantee and the violating contract factors of the borrowers. The study uses 329 samples of general loan of the farmland guarantee from a specific financial institution from January 1996 to the end of December 2006. Among these samples, the number of normal accounts and overdue accounts are 222 and 107, respectively. The study uses the Logit model to analyze such factors as guarantee, borrowers, and the condition of loan. The findings of the study show that the main significant determinants of violating contract of farmland guarantee credit are: the plan of the use of guarantee, the amount of valuation, the condition of neighboring area, the assets of borrowers, the amount of balance of credit, the loan allotted time, and the availability loan grace period.
