桃園地區供水模式選用之研究

南華大學機構典藏系統 > 管理學院 > 旅遊管理學系(旅遊管理碩士班) > 博碩士論文-休閒環境管理碩士班(停招) > Item 987654321/20596

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題名:	桃園地區供水模式選用之研究
其他題名:	Study of the Water Supply Models for Taoyuan Area
作者:	廖福全 Liao, Fu-chuan
貢獻者:	環境管理研究所趙家民 Jia-min Jhao
關鍵詞:	模擬演算法;標的用水;缺水指數;缺水率;迴歸分析 water consumption;water scarcity rate;regression analysis;simulation calculating method;water scarcity index
日期:	2008
上傳時間:	2015-05-11 14:53:31 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本研究係以流域生活圈觀念，以新店溪及大漢溪水源交互運用，充分有效利用現有水資源，研究區域為臺北、桃園及新竹地區，分別建立該區之水資源供水系統之全時域模式，同時配合水文歷史資料及板新、桃園地區自來水系統、農業用水等現況資料進行分析，得到各區域在不同目標年及情境下之缺水指標，並依據指標採區域水源調豐濟枯調度手段及結合自來水供水設施改善與功能提升，以達成不缺水為目標。　　　　為降低供水風險達成桃園地區供水穩定，本研究之模式建立所採用之方法為模擬演算法，根據系統設定之條件，如水庫不同操作策略及運轉規則等限制條件，較具體描述出水源各細部運作及其對各標的用水影響，經過模擬分析北部地區水源及目標年各標的用水可能發生缺水情形，得出可能影響供水穩定因子並採取各項因應策略，依據模擬情境得出區域缺水率極缺水指數，以判定供水系統穩定度。　　　　此外，桃園地區近來頻遭颱風及豪大雨侵襲造成災害與損失不貲，因此，本研究亦模擬天然災害發生時水庫原水濁度過高可能產生缺水危機，並以歷年颱風之實測資料進行統計，得到各淨水場在相對應濁度下之出水能力，並重新進行統計分析，得到水庫濁度與各淨水場可出水量之對應關係，並在適度改善供水設施條件下，分析其影響缺水程度及如何選用供水模式。　　　　本研究雖結合迴歸分析推估目標年需求量，再以模擬演算法計算出北部地區水源供應可能發生缺水瓶頸關鍵因素，並依據關鍵因素找出解決方案之供水模式。然終究水文缺水年(俗稱枯旱年)仍有發生機率，爰此，仍需針對枯旱年可能發生缺水因子，未雨綢繆預先建立各項應變機制，以確保水資源系統供應可靠度與自來水供水穩定度。　　Based on the basin life circle idea, this research studies the optimization of water rationing of water source from the Hsintien creek and the Tahan creek, in order to utilize the water resources effectively. The research also aims to set up the water supply systems respectively for Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu area in the entire time domain pattern, analyzing the hydrology historic information, current water supply system and agricultural water use data covering Banhsin and Taoyuan area, obtaining the water scarcity index in various regions in different target years and situations, in order to achieve the goal of water sufficiency.　　　　In order to reduce the water supply risk to achieve the water supply stability in Taoyuan area, the simulation calculating method is adapted to establish the module. According to the system hypothesis, like reservoir operating conditions and operation strategy, the study describes the water source operation in detail and the influence on target water consumption. The factors of affecting the water supply stability and the subsequent procedures can be derived by simulating analysis of northern area water source and the target year. The region water scarcity rate index can be obtained to predict the water supply system stability.　　　　In addition, the Taoyuan area recently has frequently suffers from the typhoons and the heavy rain storms, causing disaster and heavy loss. So this research also simulates the situation when the reservoir’s raw water turbidity is tremendously high because of natural disasters, which potentially causes water shortage crisis. The historical typhoon data are put into the module to obtain the water production capacity of water purification plants in different raw water turbidity. Furthermore, the relationship between the reservoirs’s raw water turbidity and the water production capacity of water purification plants will be built. And under the moderate improvement of water facilities, the influence on water scarcity degree and the way how to select the water supply pattern is analyzed.　　　　This research uses regression analysis to estimate the target year water demand, and derives the water supply shortage crisis factors in the northern area by simulation. However the hydrology water scarcity year (namely dry drought year) is still eventually probable. 　　　　　　Hence, the contingency program must be set up in respect to the water scarcity factors in the dry drought year to guarantee the water resources system reliability and the water supply stability.
顯示於類別:	[旅遊管理學系(旅遊管理碩士班)] 博碩士論文-休閒環境管理碩士班(停招)

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