| 摘要: | 本研究可分為兩大部分，一部份內容探討人力資源管理的概念如何應用於警政工作，採用文獻詳述的方法，第二部份內容討論警察生產力的新概念，並用統計分析的方法預測台灣未來總警力數目以及利用因素分析法評定各市、縣警察效能的排行榜。 本研究利用1702個數據獲得十個重要的迴歸方程，並有以下重要發現： 一、總警力數取決於人口與犯罪人口兩大因素，台灣無刑案理想社會的總警力數推估為7908人，誤差4.5﹪。2002年台灣總為72323 人，民警比為320人/十萬人口，2005年台灣總警力推70516人，民警比為305人/十萬人口。 二、警力成長函數中，人口成長的彈性為0.2個百分點，刑案成長彈性為0.67。 三、犯罪人口成長函數中，人口彈性為0.72，市縣間收入差距的彈性0.75，顯然，消除收入差距是抑制刑事犯罪的主要途徑。 本研究利用因素分析法對23個市縣的警察總效能進行評分，第一名為苗栗縣，最後一名為台北縣，高雄縣名列第十四名
This paper illustrates how experimentation with the statistical analysis model can be used to determine the concept of policing production and total policing power of Taiwan. It has two arts; a review of human resource theory applied to policing. The second part attempts to reinterpret in the whole context,asta tistical method the author developed originally to understand systematic efficiency of policing. By means of 1,702 data, this study got ten very regression formula, and have some very valuable findings as noted elow: 1.The whole police manpower is determined by two factors, which arethe number of general population and the number of criminalpopulation. In Taiwan, the police manpower of an ideal societywithout any criminal cases happening should be 7,908, and theerror is 4.5%. In 2002, the number of the whole police manpowererror is 4.5%. In 2002, the number of the whole police manpoweris 72, 323, the ratio between and police should be 320:100,000. In 2005, the whole police manpower is estimated to be 70,516, and the ratio between civilians and police will be 305: 100,000. 2.In the growth function of police manpower, the elasticity of the growth of the population is 0.2%, and the growth elasticityof criminal cases is 0.67. 3.In the growth function of criminal population, the elasticity of the population is 0.72, and the elasticity of the scale of the income between cities and counties’ people is 0.75. Obviously, to eliminate the scale of income difference is themain course to reduce criminal cases to happen . This study uses the factor analysis method to score the effective outcome of 23 different cities and counties. Miao-Li County is in the first place; Taipei County is the last one, and Kaohsiung County is the 14th. |
