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    題名: 台灣汽車市場消費者需求彈性估計-羅吉特模型之應用
    其他題名: Estimating Demand Elasticity in Taiwan's Automobile arket: the Application of Logit Model
    作者: 張燕蘋
    Chang, Yen-ping
    貢獻者: 經濟學研究所
    黃瓊玉
    Chiung-yu Huang
    關鍵詞: 需求;彈性;差異化產品;羅吉特
    Logit;Product Differentiation;Elasticity;Demand
    日期: 2006
    上傳時間: 2015-08-04 14:29:34 (UTC+8)
    摘要:   由於一般的計量模型理論大多著重於產品價格與數量之間的探討,且其所計算出來的價格彈性,無法考量到某些消費者的屬性及產品的特徵所造成的購買決策差異,但卻可藉由離散選擇模型來克服此一問題。因此,本文在考量內生性及個體偏好異質性的情況下,擬利用離散選擇模型中之羅吉特模式 (logit model)來估計消費者對於汽車特徵的偏好,並使用該估計值計算出台灣消費者對各種汽車車款的需求價格彈性及不同汽車車款間彼此的替代彈性,而利用此模型所計算出的彈性,將更為接近消費者的真實偏好情況,有助於汽車業者做為汽車改款或新產品設計時之依據。   實證結果發現安全氣囊、扭力對於市佔率有正向的影響,而車輛尺寸、價格、是否為進口車則對於市佔率有反向的影響。另外,大部份的價格彈性有隨著時間增加而上升的趨勢,表示消費者對於價格的敏感性有愈來愈高的現象,就平均而言,進口車的價格彈性自2000年的1.85上升至2004年的2.35,而國產汽車的的價格彈性在2000年到2004年之間只有小幅上升,波動僅在0.07之間。而在替代彈性方面,大多數替代彈性高的車款為年度銷售排行為前幾名的車款。
      The general approach to discuss the relation between price and quantity posits a system of demand equations where each equation specifies the demand for a product as a function of its own price, the price of other products, and other variables. However, such a market-level approach is unable to reflect consumers' heterogeneous tastes on their purchasing decisions. Berry et al. (1995) develop techniques to empirically analyze demand and supply in differentiated products markets using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data. This study applies Berry et al. (1995) framework to investigate the own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand in Taiwan's automobile market during the period of 2000-2004.    The empirical results show that airbag and torsion have positive influences on the market share; but vehicle size, price, as well as the imported car have negative effects on the market share. In addition, there has been a rising trend in the own-price elasticities of demand, in other words, consumers are more sensitive to the price. Specifically, the own-price elasticity of demand for the imported cars rises from 1.85 in 2000 to 2.35 in 2004, but the domestic automobile only rises slightly from 0.84 in 2000 to 0.91 in 2004. Finally, the cross-price elasticity of demand is usually higher for the automobile with a greater market share.
    顯示於類別:[文化創意事業管理學系] 博碩士論文-休閒產業碩士班(停招)

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