武器裝備愈精良，其購價愈昂貴，後續作業的維持經費也愈沉重，在國防預算逐年緊縮的情況下，有效預測維護武器裝備妥善之備份件需求，提高備份件需求預測之精準度，購置適量之備份件及器材，將有限之資源發揮最大功效，進而鞏固戰力。 本研究乃運用灰色系統理論之「灰色預測GM(1,1)模式」，依據國軍某型戰機航電系統90至94年間之實際需求量，來預測未來五年備料量需求，提供國軍計畫備料與採購之決策單位參考，另藉由「灰色關聯分析模式」進行局部關聯性分析，以明確判斷影響航電系統妥善之關鍵因素，研擬最佳改善方案，進而有效提高飛機妥善率。 研究結果經檢驗各實際值與預測值之殘差均極小，預測之平均精準度極高，顯示預測效能良好，因此灰色理論適合於國軍計畫備料作業參考。 The more excellent the weapon is the more expensive it costs, which consequently causes the government to set up a very high budget for the follow up logistics sustention costs. However, due to the economic recession which causes the national defense budget is tightened year by year, to effectively forecast the needs for the spare parts to maintain the weapons in good condition, to precise predict the needs for the parts, and to purchase the appropriate the amount of assets and supplies will make the great uses of the resources to firmly enhance the defense capability. This paper uses grey theory ＂grey prediction GM (1,1) model＂, which the statistics used to make future 5 years spare preparation is based upon the actual consumption from a type of fighter’s avionics system from 2001 to 2005. The result of this research will provide the defense of department for the reference of the spare parts preparation planning and purchasing. And finally utilize Grey Relation Analysis Model to perform partial relevant analysis and find out the crucial factors of elements that affect avionics available, and then form up a optimal action to improve avionics available rate effectively. By examining the result of this research, the residual value differences between the real values and prediction values are very small that shows the prediction accuracy is very high. Therefore, it is very adequate for defense of department to apply the Grey Theory to plan the spare pats of weapon systems spare pats preparation.
