| 摘要: | 日本近年來經濟處於低迷的狀態，2013年日本首相提出貨幣寬鬆政策，想藉此增加國際旅客，促進經濟成長。本研究以日本為對象，使用1970年到2013年的年資料，探討影響國際旅客赴日旅遊的因素以及旅遊業是否會帶動日本經濟成長。變數有實質匯率、旅遊人數、旅遊收入、日本所得、世界所得，採用ADF單根檢定、共整合檢定、誤差修正模型的實證方法。 實證結果顯示:匯率會影響旅遊人數，但不影響旅遊收入。世界所得對旅遊人數及旅遊收入皆無影響。換言之，影響赴日旅遊的因素為匯率。旅遊收入、匯率對日本的經濟成長沒影響，換言之，旅遊業不會帶動日本經濟成長。 國際旅遊無法提振日本經濟，因此日本須另外尋找振興經濟的策略。
Japan's economy is in the doldrums in recent years. In 2013 , Japanese Prime Minister proposed monetary easing, would like to take this increase in international travellers, and promote economic growth. In this study, Japan as an object, use annual data from 1970 to 2013 , and to explore whether the impact of international travel to Japan and tourism factors will lead to the growth of the Japanese economy The variables are real exchange rate , the number of travellers , international tourism revenue , Japan GDP , world GDP , using ADF test , co-integration test, error correction model of empirical methods. The empirical results show: the exchange rate will affect the number of tourists ,but does not affect tourism revenue. The world GDP will not affect the number of tourists and tourism revenue. In other words , the factor affecting travel to Japan is the exchange rate . international tourism revenues did not affect Japan's economic growth , in other words , the tourism industry and the exchange rate will not lead the growth of the Japanese economy . International tourisms can not boost the Japanese economy , Japan must find another strategy to revive the economy . |
