隨著生育率的下降，退休後的老人會開始規劃未來的養老生活，內政部於2012年提出「以房養老」計畫，針對65歲以上老人推估其不動產逆向抵押額度，估價不動產的現值以按月給付，但是效果卻有限；反觀美國，房產價值轉換抵押貸款計劃開始於1989年，年滿62歲的老人，可以將名下房產向銀行申請抵押，此計畫在美國各州大受歡迎。本研究採用美國住宅發展部公布之逆向抵押房貸資料，研究期間從2014年1月～2014年12月，研究範圍為美國50州，從縱橫兩個面向，選取逆向房屋抵押貸款的「期初貸款上限」、「最高索賠金額」、「利率水準」等變數，以探討借款者選擇處分型或融資型之影響因素。研究方法採用羅吉斯迴歸模型，實證結果顯示三個自變項均達顯著水準，可有效預測與解釋處分型或融資型之選擇，從各月份及各分區等面向來看，所投入的三個變項中，至少有一個因素可以預測及解釋處分型或融資型之選擇。 Due to the decline in fertility, the elder retirees begin to plan their needs for future living. The Ministry of Interior has proposed a ＂Home Equity Conversion Mortgage＂ program for the elders over 65 years old in 2012. This program evaluates their real estate reverse mortgage credits and this valuation of real estate in turn exchanges to the monthly payment for retirees, but the effect is limited. On the other hand, in United States, the value of real estate mortgage conversion program began in 1989. Elders of 62-year-old could apply mortgages from bank with the property-under-their names; this program was highly welcomed in US. This study analyzed the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage data during the period from January 2014 to December 2014 and covered 50 states which were published by the US Reverse Residential Mortgage Development Department using the Logistic regression model. From the variables of the ＂Initial Principal Limit＂, ＂Maximum Claim Amount＂, and ＂Interest Rate＂ of reverse mortgages to investigate the factors that affect the borrower's option on the type of purchase and refinance. The empirical results showed that these three independent variables can effectively predict or explain the type of purchase or refinance with significance. From the aspects of each month and each district, at least one of the three variables can explain and predict the type of purchase and refinance.
