自2013 年，中共提出陸上與海上絲綢之路，此後這所謂的「帶路倡議」，已經成為中共對外作為的總括。中共大力宣揚「帶路倡議」的成功，並且在規模上、空間上不斷擴展其範圍，不再僅限於過往絲綢之路所經之地，而擴及西非、拉丁美洲、甚至北極等地。然而在這一片前景大好、錦上添花的氛圍中，許多相關計畫卻也開始遭到瓶頸，甚至被取消。究竟這「帶路倡議」是中共國力增長後必然且合理的對外經貿投射，抑或是好大喜功、過份鋪張的莽撞之舉？本文嘗試採取守勢新古典現實主義的觀點，提出具體的衡量標準，主張這「帶路倡議」其實正是這學理上所講的「過度擴張」現象。 The so-called “Belt Road Initiative (BRI)” based on the ancient Silk Road metaphor has become the overall policy of PRC’s international activity. PRC vigorously promotes the success of BRI and expands its geographic scope beyond the historical Silk Road to West Africa, Latin America, and even the Arctic. However, many BRI projects now face problems and are even cancelled. Is BRI a reasonable strategy for PRC or a fatal mistake? This article attempts to analyze BRI through a defensive neoclassical realist perspective and assert that, with precise indicators for measuring the degree of expansion, BRI is exactly the phenomenon of “over expansion” described in this academic approach.
