| 摘要: | 本研究屬股票基本分析，採事件研究法，是指對股票市場的分析研究，影響股票價值的波動因素有很多，如經濟環境影響，如工業、農業、商業、運輸業、公共事業、金融業等各行各業的狀況，股票基本分析範圍包括利用各種統計資料，運用多種多樣的經濟指標採用一定的比例的分析方法，從研究宏觀的經濟大環境開始，觀察各行業興衰分析，進而根據企業經營、盈收的現狀和景氣變化，從中對股票作出接近現實的分析研究，並儘可能分析股價影響的變化。 公司有無異常營收，按照股票上市法規定的義務，在公開市場上公布公司動態消息，一旦公布在股票在市場上消息：包括異常營收宣告，借貸，財務不佳營收衰退，財務危機消息公告等等，是否影響投資人出售的股票價格?所以股價的波動不僅受制於各種經濟因素、政治因素，並受投資人心理因素影響，這些多是基本因素，另外還有技術分析等多方面的影響，概括影響股票市場價格波動的因素是相當廣泛的，而本研究的研究方法，是異常營收宣告事件研究法。 所謂基本因素包括經濟性因素、政治性因素、人為操縱因素和其他因素等。股票在市場買賣價格，是投資者最關心的問題，各種股市分析專家和資深的投資者，探求分析和預測股價的方法，從市場供需關係入手，逐漸演變成股價技術分析方法。 本研究是採從消息面宣告異常營收，是否會影響股價波動的因素關係，分析市場股價的走勢是否受到影響，屬事件研究分析方法，因事件產出異常報酬率(abnormal returns；簡稱AR)，可瞭解市場證券價格與特定事件是否有關聯性。 利用統計方法檢定異常報酬率狀況，檢定期望異常報酬率是否為零，分別代表有無事件發生之下的期望報酬率，藉以解釋事件是否對公司的股價波動造成影響，其實股票的實際價格很難與市場上的價格同步，像大同集團目前公司的經營處境，借貸高，財務營收不佳，在消息宣告前後其危機，是否也會形成投資人嚴重損失的危機，如何避免減少投資人損失，是本事件研究法針對異常營收宣告對股價波動的影響最主要的目的，希望本事件研究法能就本人投資股海，歷經大風大浪30多年豐富的經驗，期望能幫助投資人如何避開投資風險減少損失，創造投資人獲利的機會，實為本研究異常營收宣告對股價波動的影響之最主要目的，也是人生努力的目標和願景。
This research is a basic analysis of stocks - the study of the event, refers to the analysis of the stock market, there are many fluctuation factors affecting the value of the stock, such as economic and environmental impacts, such as industry, agriculture, commerce, transportation, public utilities, financial industry The situation of all walks of life, the basic analysis of stocks includes the use of various statistical materials, using a variety of economic indicators using a certain proportion of analysis methods, starting from the study of the macroeconomic environment, observing the analysis of the rise and fall of various industries, and then according to the enterprise Management, the status quo of earnings and too, the analysis of stocks is close to reality, and analyze the changes in stock price as much as possible. Whether the company has abnormal revenues, announced in the open market in accordance with the obligations stipulated in the stock listing law, company news, once announced in the stock market in the market 8: including abnormal revenue announcements, borrowing, poor financial, revenue decline, Financial crisis news announcements - etc., does it affect the stock price of investors selling? Therefore, the fluctuation of stock price is not only subject to various economic factors, political factors, but also influenced by the psychological factors of investors. These are mostly basic factors. In addition, there are many factors such as technical tooth analysis and other factors, and the factors that affect the price fluctuation of the stock market are Quite a wide range, and this study is an abnormal revenue announcement event research method. The so-called basic factors - including economic factors, political factors, human manipulation factors and other factors. The stock price of stocks in the market is the most concerned issue for investors. Various stock market analysts and investors in Sue explore the method of analyzing and forecasting stock prices. From the market supply and demand relationship, they gradually evolve into stock price technical analysis methods. The steaming study is based on the fact that the abnormal revenue of the news is announced, whether it will affect the fluctuation of the stocks, and whether the trend of the stock price is affected. It is an event research and analysis method~, due to the event output abnormal return atornal. Returns; referred to as AR, can understand whether the market securities are eligible for a specific event. The statistical method determines the abnormal return rate, and checks whether the abnormal return rate of the regular treasure is zero, which indicates whether there is an expected return rate under the occurrence of the event, thereby explaining whether the event has an impact on the companys stock price fluctuation. In fact, the actual price of the stock It is difficult to keep pace with the price on the market. Like Datong's current company's operating environment, borrowing high, poor financial revenue, and the crisis before and after the announcement of the news, has it also formed a crisis of serious losses for investors, how to avoid Reducing the investors report is the most important purpose of this incident research method for the impact of abnormal revenue announcement on stock price fluctuations. I hope that this event research method can be used to help investors with a rich experience of more than 30 years of investment in the sea. How to avoid the risk of blaming the loss of blame and create an opportunity for investors to make a profit is the impact of the abnormal revenue announcement on stock price volatility. The main purpose is also the goal and vision of life. |
