美國聯準會升息對台股之影響－以Covid 19期間為例

NHUIR > College of Management > Department of Finance, The M.A. Program of Financial Management > Disserations and Theses > Item 987654321/29820

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nhuir.nhu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29820

Title:	美國聯準會升息對台股之影響－以Covid 19期間為例
Other Titles:	The Impact of Federal Reserve System Interest Rate Increase on Taiwan Stock Market--During Covid 19 as an Example
Authors:	尤庭蓁 YU, TENG-CHEN
Contributors:	財務金融學系財務管理碩士班廖永熙 LIAU, YUNG-SHI
Keywords:	聯準會;升息;事件研究法;新冠肺炎;累積異常報酬率 Fed Reserve;interest rate increase;Event Study;Covid 19;Cumulative Abnormal Return
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2023-11-14 13:46:32 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究探討了升息對股市的影響，以新冠肺炎期間為時間點，結果顯示其可能是褒貶不一的，取決於市場對升息的預期和經濟背景。升息宣告通常不會對股市產生太大的影響，如果市場已經預期了升息。然而，若升息超出了市場的預期，則可能會對股市產生負面影響。此外，升息對不同行業的影響也不同。金融業可能受益於經濟復甦，但對利率敏感的行業如房地產和消費類股可能受到負面影響。　　本研究針對台灣上市公司的股價進行了分析，並研究了七個聯準會升息宣告事件日的影響。研究結果顯示，升息宣告對股市產生了明顯的影響，並持續影響了一段時間。不同產業受到的影響程度也有所不同。在事件發生的不同日期，化學生技、金融保險、航運、鋼鐵、塑膠和電子等產業均受到影響。金融保險類股對累積報酬的影響最大，電子類股也對累積報酬產生了重要影響。　　總結來說，升息對股市的影響是一個複雜的問題，受到多種因素的交互影響。投資者和分析師需要密切關注聯準會的政策變化和市場對升息的預期，並對不同產業進行深入研究和分析，以更準確地評估升息對個別股票和整個股市的影響。　　This study investigates the impact of interest rate hikes on the stock market, focusing on the period of the COVID 19 pandemic. The results indicate that the impact can be mixed, depending on market expectations of interest rate hikes and the economic background.Interest rate announcements typically do not have a significant effect on the stock market if they are already anticipated by the market. However, if interest rate hikes exceed market expectations, they may have a negative impact on the stock market. Furthermore, the impact of interest rate hikes varies across different industries. The financial sector may benefit from economic recovery, while interest rate-sensitive industries such as real estate and consumer stocks may experience negative effects.　　The study analyzes the stock prices of listed companies in Taiwan and investigates the impact of seven interest rate announcement events by the central bank. The results show that interest rate announcements have a significant and lasting impact on the stock market. The degree of impact varies across different industries. Industries such as chemical biotech, financial insurance, shipping, steel, plastics, and electronics are affected on different dates. The financial insurance sector has the largest impact on cumulative returns, and the electronics sector also has a significant influence on cumulative returns.　　In conclusion, the impact of interest rate hikes on the stock market is a complex issue influenced by various factors. Investors and analysts need to closely monitor policy changes by the central bank and market expectations regarding interest rate hikes. It is also important to conduct in-depth research and analysis on different industries to accurately assess the impact of interest rate hikes on individual stocks and the overall stock market.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Finance, The M.A. Program of Financial Management] Disserations and Theses

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