南華大學機構典藏系統:Item 987654321/21420
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    题名: 灰色理論應用於台電公司人力需求預測
    其它题名: THE APPLICATION OF GREY THEORY TO MANPOWER DEMANDS PREDICATION OF TAIPOWER
    作者: 潘美秋
    Pan, Mei-chiu
    貢獻者: 管理研究所
    應立志
    Li-Chih Ying
    关键词: 灰色理論;人力需求預測;台電公司
    Manpower Demands Prediction;Grey Theory;Taipower
    日期: 2003
    上传时间: 2015-06-04 11:17:59 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 　　本文以人力規劃的觀點切入，探討台電公司在面臨組織變革之際，如何維持其競爭優勢，致勝關鍵乃是人力資源之靈活運用與配置，而首要之務為準確的預測最適人力。　　　本研究經分析組織內外環境情況及人力結構之分佈狀況後，建構出該公司之最適人力需求預測模式，並經篩選後萃取用戶數、裝置容量、發電度數、售電度數、輸電線路迴長、配電線路迴長為預測因子。運用灰色理論發展之灰色預測模式預測人力需求量，採用生產力觀點分析預測其人力需求數量，預測台電公司民國91年至102年人力需求數量，再經由灰關聯分析找出影響人力需求預測因子之權重大小，以作為該公司民營化時執行人事政策及人力規劃之參考。　　　研究結果經檢驗各實際值與預測值之殘差值均極小，顯示預測之準確性極高，因此台電公司適合以灰色理論來預測其人力需求數量。　
    　　This paper is from the manpower planning point of view to study how to keep the competition superiority on Taipower when it is facing the change of organization. The key point is to utilize and allocate the human resource into a full active play, and the most important thing is to predict the optimal manpower accurately. 　　　After analyzing the organization internal and external environment situation and the distribution status of manpower structure, we established the optimal manpower prediction model of Taipower. By selecting carefully, we picked out the number of customers, installed capacity, energy generation, energy sales ,circuit length of transmission lines, circuit length of distribution lines as the prediction factors. Utilizing the prediction system Grey model developed from the Grey Theory, we chose the productivity element to analyze and predict the manpower demand quantity. As the manpower demand quantity of Taipower from year 2002 to 2013 were predicted, we could find the weight of prediction factor that affected the manpower demand element via the Grey Relation analysis model and it might become the important references to Taipower when initiating the manpower policy and manpower scheming during privatization. 　　　By examining the result of this research, the residual value differences between the real values and prediction values are very small that shows the prediction accuracy is very high. Therefore, it is very adequate for Taipower to apply the Grey Theory to predict the manpower demand quantity.　
    显示于类别:[企業管理學系(管理科學碩/博士班,非營利事業管理碩士班)] 博碩士論文-管理科學碩博士班

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