馬政府與蔡政府時代的兩岸關係—從「新功能主義」分析

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Title:	馬政府與蔡政府時代的兩岸關係—從「新功能主義」分析
Other Titles:	A Comparative Study of the Cross-Strait Relations between Ma Ying-Jeou and Tsai Ing-Wen Administrations from the Standpoint of the New-Functionalism
Authors:	陳英元 CHEN, YING-YUAN
Contributors:	國際事務與企業學系公共政策研究碩士班胡聲平 HU, SHENG-PING
Keywords:	一個中國;九二共識;海峽兩岸服務貿易協議;中美貿易戰 One-China Policy;1992 Consensus;Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement;China-United States Trade War
Date:	2020
Issue Date:	2022-08-08 11:46:16 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	兩岸關係於1987年因台灣解嚴而開始交流以來，雖可謂越來越密切，然卻時而出現「忽冷忽熱」，甚至是「政冷經熱」之詭異情況。　　馬英九在2008年執政後，因其「九二共識」主張與中共之「一個中國」原則有相互呼應的模糊空間，故兩岸出現友善良好的互動。2009年，馬政府推動簽署「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議」，兩岸經貿關係乃更加緊密。然而，看似兩岸即將邁向「高政治領域事務」整合時，卻發生了2014年的「318學運」，並導致原擬簽署的服貿協議「胎死腹中」。　　蔡英文在2016年上台後，因拒談「九二共識」，又使兩岸關係呈現緊張局面。但有趣的是，雖然經濟上出現諸如縮減來台陸客名額等中共經濟制裁台灣之情事，然中共卻同時祭出惠台31條措施，來維持「低政治領域事務」之交流。　　學者針對歐洲統合過程，提出「新功能主義」。即從「低政治領域事務」整合著手，在菁英們刻意推動下，朝「高政治領域事務」之整合邁進。該過程恰與馬、蔡兩政府時期之兩岸關係有諸多理論相符之處。故本文乃欲借「新功能主義」來切入析論，並盼能對往後的兩岸交流與發展有所助益。　　經本論文研究後發現：一、兩岸關係發展與「新功能主義」觀點相符　　兩岸關係發展恰如「新功能主義」強調之先避開爭議性的政治議題，由經貿議題開始整合，再逐步「擴溢」。不過可惜的是，在蔡英文上台後，兩岸關係已由原先的「擴溢」反轉為「溢回」。二、目前兩岸關係已再度走向對抗態勢，「一個中國」原則將愈無模糊空間　　經本文析論發現，兩岸間友好和善，誠乃奠基於「九二共識」礎石上。因蔡政府執政後遲不承認「九二共識」，中共愈加不滿與猜忌之餘，已逐步朝向不予「一中原則」模糊空間之方向發展。三、兩岸經貿交流減少、交流限制擴大，愈加不可能促成兩岸政治整合　　蔡英文就職後，中共持續施壓與經濟制裁台灣，可預見的，將損及兩岸民間、非官方多年來建立的相互理解與友善基礎。未來兩岸關係勢必更難產生外溢效應，當然也就更難實現政治化之具體目標。　　本研究根據上述研究結論提出後續研究建議，以供未來研究之參考。　　Since the martial law in Taiwan was lifted in 1987 and the cross-strait exchanges started, the relationship between Taiwan and China could be described as getting closer and closer, but it blows hot and cold from time to time nevertheless or even shows a weird situation of ＂cold politics and hot economics＂.　　When Ma Ying-jeou rose to power in 2008, friendly and good interactions occurred between the two sides because of his ＂1992 Consensus＂ proposition, which echoed the claim of the Chinese Communist Party's ＂One-China＂ policy, and there was an ambiguous space for mutual response. In 2009, Ma Ying-jeou government pushed forward the signing of the ＂Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)＂, leading to closer cross-strait economic and trade relations. However, when the two sides seemed about to move towards the integration of issues of ＂high politics＂, the ＂318 Student Movement＂ occurred in 2014 and led the about-to-sign ECFA to the ＂failure before being carried out＂.　　After Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, she refused to discuss the ＂1992 Consensus＂, making cross-strait relations tense again. However, it is interesting to see that, although the Chinese Communist Party has imposed economic sanctions on Taiwan, such as reducing the number of Chinese passengers coming to Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party also announced the 31 Policy Measures to benefit Taiwan in order to maintain exchanges in the issues of ＂low politics＂.　　Scholars proposed ＂Neo-Functionalism＂ for the European integration process, which was to start with the integration of issues of ＂low politics＂, and to take a step towards the integration of issues of ＂high politics＂ upon elites' intentional promotion. This process coincided with many theories of cross-strait relations during Ma's presidency and Tsai's presidency. Therefore, this article intends to use ＂Neo-Functionalism＂ as a cross-cutting tool for analysis, and hopes to be helpful to cross-strait exchanges and development in the future.　　It is found after study that: 1. The development of cross-strait relations is consistent with the views of ＂Neo-Functionalism＂.　　The development of cross-strait relations is just like what ＂Neo-Functionalism＂ emphasizes, which is to avoid controversial political issues first, starting with the integration of economic and trade issues, and then ＂expanding＂ step by step. Nonetheless, it is a pity that after Tsai Ing-wen took office, the cross-strait relations have been reversed from the original ＂expansion＂ to ＂decline＂.2. The cross-strait relations have entered a confrontational situation once again, and the ＂One-China＂ policy will be less ambiguous.　　According to the analysis of this article, it is found that the friendship and the kindness between the two sides are based on the foundation of the ＂1992 Consensus＂. Because the Tsai government refused to recognize the ＂1992 Consensus＂, the Chinese Communist Party became more and more dissatisfied and suspicious; thus, it has gradually developed towards the ＂One-China Policy＂ without being blurred.3. The reduction of cross-strait economic and trade exchanges and the expansion of exchange restrictions make it increasingly impossible to promote cross-strait political integration.　　The Chinese Communist Party continued to exert pressure and economic sanctions on Taiwan after Tsai Ing-wen took office. It is foreseeable that it will undermine the mutual understanding and friendly foundation that the two sides' civil and unofficial construction over the years. Cross-strait relations will inevitably be difficult to have spillover effects in the future, and it would certainly be more difficult to achieve the specific goal of politicization.　　This study makes follow-up research suggestions based on the foregoing conclusions for future research.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International and China Studies, The M.A. Program of Asia-Pacific Studies and Public Policy Studies] Disserations and Theses(M.A. Program in Public Policy Studies)

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